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When I have to depend upon hope in a trade, I get out of it.
Jesse Livermore


Cocoa from 1981 (200 day exponential average red)and Stock to Use Ratio %
Cocoa stocks to use ratio %
Cocoa Recent (Spot)(200 day exponential average red, 50 day xaverage yellow) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.

Coacoa Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
Cocoa Point & Figure (spot) Box = 3 Reversal = 3
Cocoa (ICE) WAREHOUSE Stocks
Cocoa Notes & Links:

The ICCO estimates that cocoa accounts for about 10% of the average price of a chocolate bar.
One ton of cocoa makes about 7,250 chocolate bars of 100-grams (3.5 ounces) each.
9/4/13 Barry Callebaut AG, the largest maker of bulk chocolate, said it got approval from the European Commission to label products with the claim that a substance in cocoa promotes healthy blood circulation.


4/13/14  Europe's cocoa grind rose 0.4% in Q1, well below expectations of a rise of 3%. However, the lower increase was attributed to more processing being done in cocoa producing countries, such as Ivory Coast and Indonesia, rather than to soft European demand.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said the odds of an El Nino developing in the May-July period now exceed 70%.
2/1/14 NEW YORK—Cocoa futures rose to a more than 28-month high Monday on concerns that supplies for the key chocolate ingredient will not keep up with demand this year.  Cocoa-bean stockpiles monitored by ICE Futures U.S. dropped 2.9 percent last week, adding to supply concerns. The current estimates have production 105,000 metric tons smaller than demand in the year started Oct. 1, followed by a shortage of 74,000 tons the next season.
12/2/2013 The ICCO raised the cocoa production deficit to 160,000 from 52,000 tonnes. "World production of cocoa beans is now expected to be significantly lower than previously envisaged," the ICCO said, cutting its forecast for world output by 55,000 tonnes to 3.99m tonnes. Consumption  was raised by 54,000 tonnes to 4.05m tonnes.
12/2/13 Cocoa Supplies will fall short of demand for the next four years, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates, citing the International Cocoa Organization.
10/17/13 YoY Asia's cocoa grindings rose 12% to 161,097 tonnes in Q3, while North American cocoa grindings rose 8.25% to their highest since at least 2009.
The International Cocoa Organization is lifting its forecast for a Cocoa deficit to 86,000 tons. It warned, "We are going to be in a deficit for the next four years, but closer to 50,000 to 60,000 tons".
8/24/13 The Singapore-based Cocoa Association of Asia said that processing rose 2% to 153,792 metric YoY. Analysts and traders expected a decrease. The European Cocoa Association said on July 15 that grindings rose 6.1% in Q2.
Cocoa Demand will exceed output by 119,000 metric tons in the 12 months starting in October, the first shortage in four years, according to Macquarie Group. However, hedge fund bets on higher prices are near a five-year high..
9/27/10 The roots of thousands of cocoa trees in Cameroon's chief cocoa-growing locality of the South-West Region are being attacked and killed by a strange, unidentified disease, farmers in the area told Dow Jones Newswires Sunday.
9/9/10 MoM U.S. cocoa bean imports rose 90.9% in July, but fell 13.9% YoY.
9/1/10 Kingsman cut by 32% to 3.52m tonnes its forecast for the global sugar surplus in 2010-11.
8/27/10 According to the international Cocoa organization the cocoa market faces a growing deficit as rising demand for the beans outpaces world production. World grindings are expected to increase by 143,000 to 3.632 million tons in the 2009-10 crop year. This is a 3,000 ton increase on its previous quarterly forecast.
7/15/10 YoY the US cocoa grind rose 12% in Q2 to 117,657 MT
7/14/10 Cocoa hits its highest since September 1977 after data show consumption by European confectioners growing at its fastest in a decade. Cocoa grind topped 328,700 tonnes in the April-to-June quarter, an increase of 12.7% YoY
4/26/10 'Serious deficit' could send cocoa to record highs: And even growers prepared to invest in plantations, in Ivory Coast or elsewhere, may be tempted to switch to rubber, a crop which can provide year-round income, is less prone to disease and whose price have also soared.
4/14/10 Germany's cocoa grind saw its third consecutive year-on-year quarterly gain in the first three months of 2010, increasing by 10.31 percent, the association of German confectionery producers BDSI said on Tuesday.
3/3/10 The International Cocoa Organization expects world production of cocoa to fall short of consumption by 18,000 tons in 2009-2010.
2/22/10 World cocoa demand could return to historical growth trends of between 2% and 3% in 2010, Cargill's managing director of cocoa and chocolate said Monday
2/16/10 ICE cocoa prices are gaining on reignited supply concerns amid political turmoil in Ivory Coast, the world's top producer, Barclay's Capital says -- Ivory Coast President Gbagbo dissolved the government and postponed the national election for the seventh time.
2/2/10 Fortis bank estimates the cocoa stock to use ratio at 35% at the end of 2010-11.
1/13/10 Germany's fourth-quarter 2009 cocoa grind rose 9.4 YoY to 95,834 tonnes, the association of German Confectionary Producers said.
12/16/09 Cocoa’s trading at the highest level in 32 years amid concerns that the market will experience a supply shortfall for a fourth successive season in 2009-10. Kona Haque, agricultural commodities analyst at Macquarie in London, said: "The cocoa sector in Ivory Coast is in structural decline due to years of insufficient husbandry and investment, leading to ageing and disease-prone trees and a high degree of abandonment."
12/14/09 Cocoa traders are concerned about production shortfalls in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for 56% of the world’s cocoa output. Cocoa production from Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest cocoa grower, is expected to fall by 160,000 tons to 1.22 million tons, according to the International Cocoa Organization.
10/15/09 North American cocoa bean grindings in the third quarter totaled 118,405metric tons, down 586 tons, or 0.49%, from the same period last year, theNational Confectioners Association said Thursday.
10/14/09 (Revision)Europe's cocoa grind fell 1.5% YoY to 343,471 tonnes in Q3 of 2009, the European Cocoa Association said on Wednesday.
10/7/09 German cocoa grind rose 11% QoQ
10/5/09 (FT) Traders are concerned that the cocoa market could face a supply deficit for a fourth year in succession as yields from ageing cocoa trees in the Ivory Coast have been affected by disease.
9/29/09 Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the chocolate ingredient, may decline by as much as 15 percent next season
8/25/09 The worldwide cocoa deficit will widen to 73,000 metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, compared with 62,000 tons a year earlier, the International Cocoa Organization said.
8/12/09 Cocoa exports from Nigeria, the world’s fourth-biggest producer of the commodity, fell 22% in June, the Lagos-based Federal Produce Inspection Service said.
Arrivals of cocoa beans from the Ivory Coast for the first 45 weeks of the 2008-09 season, are down by 14% YoY
MoM U.S. cocoa bean imports rose 56.3% in June, and 330.8% YoY, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
7/17/09 The North American cocoa grind totaled 105,123 tons in Q2, down 6.75% YoY
7/9/09 YoY European Cocoa grindings fell 11.3%
7/6/09 German cocoa grindings fell 15% YoY.
5/11/09 The ICCO forecast that global Cocoa grindings would fall 6% in the year to September 2009 compared with a previous estimate for a decline of 2.1%. Global output is forecast to fall 7 % this year, resulting in a supply deficit of between 80,000 and 90,000 tonnes.
5/6/09 Fortis Bank expects world Cocoa production at 3.60 million tons and production 64,000 tons short of world consumption.
3/3/2009 The International Cocoa Organization expects world cocoa production down 5% in 2008-2009, and a supply deficit of 193,000 tons.
12/1/2008 The International Cocoa Organization estimated that world consumption exceeded production by 77,000 tons in 2007-2008.
10/31/08 Fortis Bank estimates world coco production to exceed consumption by 52,000 tons in 2008-2009.
6/19/08 Reuters reported that a fungal disease in Indonesia is threatening the quality of 60% of the cocoa crop.
4/18/08 The Chocolate Manufacturers Association said the U.S. cocoa grind totaled 91,876 tons in the first quarter, down 5.6% YoY.
4/11/08 Europe's cocoa grind rose 4.7% YoY.
12/7/08 Germany's cocoa grindings rose 17% in 2007.
11/30/07 The International Cocoa Organization estimates  2006-2007  world cocoa ending stocks at 1.6 million tons or 44% of annual use.
10/30/07 There is concern that black pod disease may be spreading in the Ivory Coast.
10/17/07 YoY, on September 19, cocoa stocks in New York Board of Trade warehouses fell 14% to 3.77 million bags. There are also concerns about the presence of black pod disease in the Ivory Coast.
6/15/07 The International Cocoa Organization expects world production to fall short of consumption by 145,000 tons.
4/3/07 Arrivals of cocoa beans from the Ivory Coast's, were around 920,500 metric tons, down by 2.3% between Oct. 1 and March 31.
3/6/07 The International Cocoa Organization expects a world production deficit of 103,000 tons for 2006-2007.
2/19/07 Feeding your brain: new benefits found in chocolate
Funded by candy maker Mars Inc., which provided a specially formulated liquid cocoa concoction for the research, the studies suggest that flavanols increase blood flow to the brain and may hold promise for treating some vascular impairments.
2/9/07 Cocoa stocks at Nybot approved warehouses fell 22,761 bags
to total 4.559 million bags.
12/11/06 Cocoa stocks in Nybot warehouses fell 3,978 145-pound bags to total 3.808 million bags.
11/20/06 China set to be biggest Malaysian cocoa buyer The current per capita consumption of chocolate in China is only 26g, far below the world's average of 500g. In the European Union, where chocolate is a popular snack food, about 12kg of chocolate is consumed by a person yearly.
10/13/06 BBC News reported that Ghana and the Ivory Coast are struggling to contain the spread of swollen shoot virus which is hitting their cocoa crops. The two countries account for over one-half of the world's cocoa production.
9/26/06 The National Cocoa Development Committee estimates Nigerian production at 220,000 tons of cocoa in 2006-2007, up 10% YoY.
5/24/06 The International cocoa Organization increased its estimate of the world production shortfall in 2005-2006 from 87,000 tons to 161,000 tons, or 37% of annual use.
4/21/06 The U.S. cocoa grind totaled 104,690 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 2.7% YoY.
4/7/06 Germany's cocoa grind totaled 78,322 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 35% YoY. For 2005, Germany's cocoa grind was up 10%.
2/22/06 ED&F Man predicted that world cocoa production will be down 3% in 2005-2006, resulting in a production deficit of 221,000 tons.
1/12/06 Europe's cocoa grindings totaled 301,742 tons in the fourth quarter of 2005, up 4.7% YoY.
1/9/06 Cocoa grindings in Germany totaled 70,332 tons in the fourth quarter of 2005, up 23% YoY.
10/21/05 The Chocolate Manufacturers Association said that U.S. cocoa grindings totaled 104,470 tons in the third quarter, up slightly YoY.
08/25/05 The International Cocoa Organization upped the 2004-2005 world cocoa production shortfall  from 44,000 tons to 106,000 tons. They expect 2004-2005 world net production to total 3.16 million tons and world grindings to total 3.27 million tons.
05/31/05 The International Cocoa Organization said that the net world cocoa crop will total 3.18 million tons in 2004-2005, down from 3.46 million tons in the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to drop from 1.44 to 1.40 million tons.
03/02/05 The ICO said that the world faces a 50,000 tonne cocoa deficit in 2004/5. This compares to a 233,000 tonne surplus in 2003/4.
01/24/05 Dow Jones Newswires said that Ghana's Cocoa Board reduced its crop estimate from 700,000 to 600,000 tons, due to poor weather conditions.
01/21/05 The U.S. cocoa grind totalled 99,849 tons in the fourth quarter, up 3% from a year ago.
01/18/05 Dow Jones Newswires said that the Ivory Coast exported 351,730 tons of cocoa beans in the first three months of the new 2004-2005 season, down 3% from a year ago.
10/15/04 The U.S. cocoa grind totalled 104,014 tons in the third quarter, up 2% from a year ago.
10/14/04 Europe's cocoa grind in the third quarter totalled 274,776 tons, up 1.8% from a year ago.
09/24/04 The Indonesian Cocoa Association said that Indonesia expects to produce 395,000 tons of cocoa in 2004-2005, down 6% from the previous year due to pod borer damage.
08/31/04 Dark Chocolate, Cocoa Help Keep Blood Flowing
07/08/04 Germany's cocoa grind totaled 51,734 tons in the second quarter of 2004, up 21% from a year ago.
03/17/04 The International Cocoa Organization  expects the 2003-2004 world cocoa crop to total 3.037 million tons.
01/27/03 Ivory Coast officials estimated their 2003-2004 cocoa crop at 1.1 million tons, down from 1.35 million tons the previous year.
01/23/04 The U.S. cocoa grind totaled 96,700 tons in the fourth quarter, down 3% from a year ago.